The analysis presented on this site is based on a dynamic econometric model designed to capture the long-run relationship between a country's demographic structure and its government debt. The model combines demographic indicators with macroeconomic and institutional controls, using historical panel data across advanced and emerging economies. To assess robustness, multiple model specifications are estimated across different country samples and time periods. Model performance is evaluated using pseudo out-of-sample forecasts, where parameters are estimated on historical data and then used to predict current debt levels. This approach allows for an assessment of both forecast accuracy and structural stability without relying on a single specification. The projections shown on this site should be interpreted as baseline structural trajectories rather than precise predictions. They do not incorporate potential fiscal reforms, major economic crises, or unanticipated demographic change. Differences across model specifications mainly reflect uncertainty around long-run dynamics. However, in the majority of specifications the direction of change will be consistent.
The exact econometric specification is not disclosed on this website due to intellectual property concerns. If you wish to learn more about the model inquires can be made at mastroneandrew@gmail.com